Matt Brown of Core Finance speaks to Eddie Tofpik, Head of FX at ADMISI to discuss three currency pairs, USDMXN, USDBRL, USDINR.
Starting with the USDBRL, Eddie says there were lots of opportunities for it to go higher in the X3 target. There was a failure last week, a key reversal up and then failed, going down since then. However it is now running in the area of support, unless it manages to get below 320 fairly swiftly.
Looking at the chart there are lots of support and resistance bands, the most recent one about 32370 to 32435. There a re lots of little band areas where there’s resistance and support, the pressure could be for it to go sideways. At the same time there is a lot of support underneath the market, sub 320 medium moving average, long moving average, the head and shoulders neckline that caused the move up. On the topside there is a big Fibonacci level around about 32726 plus all the highs are getting lower. This could be going into the third state of markets, going sideways.
Moving onto the USDMXN, Eddie states that he has always said that the dollar Mexican is a better indicator of the US economy in the US country and presidency than the dollar index. He goes on to say that at this particular point the dollar is in ascendancy. It bounced off the long moving average, it’s going higher. The first areas resistance is going to be that middle line of the ship pitchfork which is around 1910. You start running into resistance all the way out to just underneath 1940. At this particular point it looks dollar positive, the long moving average stopped the decline of the market. If that is all a false break on the upside then you need to have consecutive closes under 1840.
Lastly looking at the Indian Rupee, Eddie says it has an interesting pattern. It is three steps down one step up, with lots of overhead resistance. Looking at the chart you can see that the medium moving average around 6454-55 area, is starting to hold the market down. Although it’s a messy chart, one is looking to see if it will travel along the shift pitchfork which at the bottom end is just under 60420. The middle tine is around about 6470 and the long moving average is 6461.
To find out more about these three currency pairs please watch the full video.
Please see more of Eddie Tofpik on Core Finance by clicking here.