With the Brexit deal taking up the main stay of the news we speak with Marc Ostwald, Strategist, ADMISI about the news investors might be missing out on, such as the Chinese Trade Data and Non-Farm Payrolls.
The Chinese trade data (which was announced over night) are much better than they were predicted. Exports are around 17% whilst the expectation was closer to 11%. Commodity exports were up across the board. The simple message to be received from the Chinese trade data is that the doom and gloom prospect is overstated and the growth is far greater than expected. China does have a lot of challenges to contend with, such as the environment, credit issues etc. But you cannot count the economy out.
The FTSE was more responsive to the uptick seen in the pound than it has been to the Chinese trade data. Which is bizarre when you consider how many miners are in the FTSE. This does suggest that people are coming to the end of the year and interest is waning.
The important data release that we have to keep an eye out open for is the impending Non-Farm Payrolls. With this having the possibility of being the first clean month of labour data. The forecasts do reflect that. As has been the case of late, Marc suggests that the average hourly earnings are going to be more important than the NFP. Predicted to be 195,000 which is far above the equilibrium rate. Marc then posits the question on the unemployment rate. If it is dipped below 4%, does it mount more pressure on the Fed?
Marc then moves on to discuss the impact and importance of the Average Hourly earnings. If they do in fact rise 0.3% then they would hit 2.7%. Consequentially this would suggest that there is a possibility of 3 rate hikes next year. Moving on Marc discusses the Trump Tax Reform. Which Marc argues is not that important and that the current economic strength of the US is very impressive.

Further Information

You can see more from Marc Ostwald on Core Finance by clicking here.


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